I don't like long-term prospects.

I don't like long-term prospects.

I don't like long-term prospects because variables that are currently considered important don't lead to significant changes, and unexpected variables often cause huge changes. So I don't even believe in saying that I've met the long-term outlook. However, I calculated it to have a 'sense'.

1. Global Refinery Market Size in 2024

Assumption: $75/BBL average, 100 million barrels daily usage, 10% refining margin.
(KRW/USD exchange rate 1,350/USD)

= KRW 75*100 million*365*1.1*1,350 = KRW 4,065 trillion (about USD 3 trillion)

2. Global Electric Vehicle Battery Market Size in 2035

Assumption: Battery price (based on module/pack) $80/kwh, 75% of global new vehicle sales, all electric vehicles sold BEV. Average battery capacity equipped with 75kWh, global new vehicle sales of 100 million units per year
(KRW/USD exchange rate 1,350/USD)

= 80×100 million×75×1,350 won = 607 trillion won (approximately 0.45 trillion dollars)

Even if global ESS demand grows as much as electric vehicles in 2035, KRW 1,200 trillion

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3-1. 45-50 percent of global oil production goes into automobiles. When 75 percent of global automobile sales turn to electric vehicles in 2035, about 40 percent of global oil demand will disappear by 2040. The oil market, which will be around W4 trillion by 2024, will be reduced to W2,400 trillion based on the current oil price.

3-2. Both the NOC and the IOC will reduce investment and cut production in order to prevent oil prices from falling as soon as global oil demand becomes certain to decline. Only the top 60% of oil production will be produced in the order of cost. Oil production in the Middle East, some shale oil in the United States, Russia, etc. will be mostly produced in the Middle East, Russia, etc., and oil production in the oceans, polar regions, and parts of Africa that are burdened with distribution will be stopped.  

4-1. Even though 75% of the world's automobiles in 2035 are pure electric vehicles, the global electric vehicle battery market is around KRW 600 trillion. Assuming an operating profit ratio of 10% and a net profit of 6-7%, the global electric vehicle battery companies will share 6-7% of KRW 600 trillion, or KRW 36-42 trillion.

The semiconductor industry and the battery industry cannot compare profitability because the ratio of raw materials to sales costs is so high. If China and Korean companies account for half of the world market out of KRW 36-42 trillion, the maximum profit that the three Korean batteries can earn is KRW 18-21 trillion per year. Samsung Electronics' semiconductor division's operating profit, which is said to be difficult now and may be more difficult in the future, is KRW 6.5 trillion in the second quarter and KRW 5.0-5.5 trillion in the third quarter.  

4-2. Suppose that Tesla's Robo Taxi, Google's Waymo, and others succeeded in developing an autonomous vehicle in 2035, and the utilization rate of the vehicle could double that of today. So, as Elon Musk put it, the number of privately owned cars that currently run 2-3 hours a day could increase to 4-6 hours.

If this happens, global automobile sales may decrease by 20-30%, if not half, even considering the increase in demand for automobiles due to the spread/proliferation of self-driving cars. The annual sales of new cars, which are assumed to be 100 million units, could decrease to 70-80 million units.

If this happens, the size of the global battery market will also be reduced to 420 trillion won, not 600 trillion won, and the net profit that the three Korean batteries can take care of will be reduced to 13-15 trillion won per year.

4-3. If a change in the concept of "movement" after the introduction of self-driving cars allows privately owned cars to move for more than 12 hours, such as today's taxis, global sales of new cars could drop to Tesla's electric vehicle production target of 20 million units. This means that the global automobile market, which is currently around 90 to 95 million units, will shrink by about 80%.

If this happens, the size of the battery market will be reduced to 120 trillion won, and the profits that all battery companies around the world can take will be reduced to less than 10 trillion won.

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Global Oil Market Size in 2024: Approximately KRW 4,000 trillion

Global EV Battery Market Size in 2035: Up to KRW 600 Trillion, even if it's really strong

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