2024. 8. 9. 05:29ㆍU.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook
The U.S. Economy Is Not Out of the "Real Estate Trap"
The 2008 crisis in the U.S. economy is generally referred to as a financial crisis or a sub-prime financial crisis, but personally, the collapse of the U.S. economy in 2008 is essentially an economic crisis caused by a "real estate trap" and most middle-class Americans losing their ability to spend
In the past, in the golden age of the middle class in the United States, only 3.5 times the income of the middle class could buy a house that the middle class needed, but just before the 2008 financial crisis, housing prices soared to more than 10 times the annual income
When housing prices soar relative to income, the proportion of the middle class's income repayment burden increases, and when renting a house, the "rent" increases. Overall, the consumption capacity of the middle class decreases relatively, and the U.S. economy falls into a structural recession
This is exactly what I would argue is the "trap of real estate."
However, after the 2008 economic crisis, housing prices, which have entered a stable zone, have continued to raise housing prices due to the U.S. ultra-low interest rates, large-scale financial easing policies, and astronomical supply of money around 2012, and the ratio of housing prices to income is now approaching the level of the 2008 economic crisis again
Personally, the most important reason why the U.S. real economy, unlike the glamorous appearance of the U.S. stock market, is that it sees itself in a "real estate trap" that would be nothing strange in any time it falls into an economic recession
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