2024. 2. 6. 10:53ㆍU.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook
[ARK vs. American Semiconductor]
# Inflation-related falls vs. inflation-damaged growth stocks
The previous day, the U.S. stock market moved to increase resistance to rising oil prices. However, it showed volatility in the course of oil prices, indicating that it will take some time to become resistant.
When raw materials become stable, the rebound of the market showed that a fall and a rebound of large growth stocks will occur. There are two categories of fall and large growth stocks here. One is not related to inflation, and the other is to avoid inflation. If ARK represents the former, I think semiconductors represent the latter.
ARK started falling in February last year. It's back to pre-COVID prices. The highest-low drop rate is -64.8%, and YTD is -40.6%. If you look at the components, except for Tesla, which is ranked first, most of them are not related to inflation. They're just expensive and have big future cash flows, which have been a bug in the interest rate hike.
ARK rebounded after six trading days. Its day low was -3.15%, its high was +5.44% and its day-to-day fluctuation was 8.6%.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index started falling in January this year. The highest-low decline was -24.4%. Broadcom, AMD, Qualcomm, Nvidia, Intel, and Micron are in the order of components, and the top 10 stocks account for 60.8%. Semiconductor stocks are characterized by a large drop right after the Ukraine crisis.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded after four trading days. The day's low was -0.97%, the high was +5.64%, and the day's fluctuation was 6.6%.
Like the Hint shown by the U.S. stock market, it should be considered that if the Ukraine crisis is resolved or raw materials are stabilized, two falls and a rebound in large growth stocks can occur simultaneously.
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