2025. 11. 17. 04:39ㆍU.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook
People are aware of my views on future Sino-Japanese relations, but I don't think it's realistic for China to make a big achievement yet. China still has to wait for things like this.
1. Japan has to decline further.
It still has 100 million people, the world's third-largest GDP, and some military power. But the good news is that the country is moving in the right direction. The automobile industry, the last pillar of the Japanese economy, is being pushed back by China's electric cars. China is lagging behind in future industries such as AI, robots, and new energy, and even in backward industries such as the Internet and mobile phones. The Japanese are now very old, mentally and physically, and have no innovation, no development, or future.
2. The U.S. should withdraw from Asia.
The U.S. and Japan still maintain a military alliance. Given the current balance of power, the U.S. is expected to gradually and reluctantly abandon Taiwan, and while China may agree to defeat Japan, it won't give up too much. The U.S. will not give up Japan, which has the largest bridgehead in Asia. But America's decline is all too obvious. America's domestic problems are increasingly bothering Americans, and I think Americans will eventually withdraw from East Asia just as Britain withdrew from South Asia.
3. China's military power and technology need to be further developed.
China currently lacks aircraft carrier and landing ship capabilities. Laser technology has begun to be applied as a means of intercepting missiles, but it is not yet mature enough. Sixth-generation aircraft have not yet been deployed to combat. Japan and the U.S. are developing their military capabilities at a much slower pace than China. As time goes by, the gap between China and Japan will become so large that China will fall into despair.
4. China can find a way to sanction Japan.
Before that day comes, China should continue to weaken Japan's overall influence through market intervention, export controls on rare earths and other key materials, a technology blockade, and restrictions on Chinese tourism to Japan. If China is not creative enough in this area, it should learn from the United States. At the same time, the Chinese military should regard Japan as a larger Taiwan and continue to carry out a variety of activities in the surrounding areas, including military training, aircraft diversion, warship pilot operations, and coast guard patrols.
If China, Japan, and the United States continue to move forward for 10 to 20 years on the current curve trajectory, everything will be ready by then.
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