2024. 9. 19. 16:26ㆍU.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook
a FOMC platform.
The Fed cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points. It was unexpected.
Many experts and market participants had expected a 25 basis point cut this time.
GDPNOW's outlook for U.S. growth is still solid,
The unemployment rate showed a slight rise, but the majority said it was not enough to worry about a sharp recession.
In addition, there were many concerns that a 50 basis point cut could re-stimulate inflation at a time when U.S. home prices remain elevated and housing costs remain elevated.
Nevertheless, the Fed decided to cut the rate by 50 basis points rather unexpectedly.
Then another story begins to emerge.
Isn't the economy much worse than we expected?
Or is there something else we don't know?
Or isn't it a complete political decision ahead of the U.S. presidential election?
This kind of atmosphere is being felt.
Eventually, even with a 50 basis point rate cut, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 all ended lower.
Our stock market and exchange rate market are also showing signs of falling and rising.
In the past, when the Fed made the big cut (50bp cut), it was herbivorous, which could be used almost only when the market was wiped out, such as the COVID pandemic and the global financial crisis.
As a result, the big cut seems to be giving the market a fear of a recession rather than a welcome one.
In addition, Japan is still fiddling with its interest rate hike card.
Here, if the U.S. economic downturn materializes and affects the asset market, there seems to be still a fear that the yen carry issue could hit the market again, like the market seizure in early August.
Anyway, if you look at the Fed's dot plot released, you can expect an additional 50 basis point cut in the remaining two FOMCs. It's not easy for anyone to predict what today's 50 basis point cut will be like for the market.
Will the preemptive interest rate response create a golden narrow path of growth and employment together to prevent a recession and a decline in unemployment and not to worry about prices,
Or, rather, whether the big cut (50bp cut) will stimulate sentiment about the recession and actually bring back the U.S. recession and the Encarry liquidation monster,
Also, no one knows if excessive interest rate cuts than market conditions will set up an inflation monster again due to higher asset prices and housing costs.
Anyway, the whole world seems to have entered the pivot era of interest rate cuts.
Now it's our choice that matters.
Our government is talking whenever we have a chance that our economy is in good shape.
Strangely, however, Yongsan and the government all expressed regret over the BOK's rate freeze, and virtually openly pressed for a rate cut.
Strange, right? They say the economy is good, but they insist on lowering interest rates.
I eat too much, my belly is swollen and my weight is over 100kg, and it's like saying let's eat 5 meals a day as a meat side dish.
Maybe it's one of them. They say they're healthy, but actually, cancer cells are spreading all over the body, or house prices are rising or not. Let's just release the money first
Probably.
When everyone else is cutting interest rates, preventing a recession and boosting the economy,
We are the only ones loyal to the ideological alliance, and the export market is slashed,
The devastating real estate all-in policy has destroyed the domestic market,
Fiscal policy cannot be implemented due to tax cuts for the rich and tax revenues,
The economy is in a tailspin, but we can't even lower interest rates because of high housing prices
I'm afraid that you'll go crazy and die
That's what I'm saying,
I just hope that the sun will set, the rain will come, the child will cry, the paddy fields will be slippery, the rubber shoes will come off, and this situation will not come.
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