2024. 3. 27. 11:47ㆍU.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook
Our market is receiving the Nvidia effect late, and foreigners are eagerly buying semiconductor stocks. That doesn't mean that other stocks are going up. Rather, it feels like a KOSDAQ stock market. Of course, semiconductor memory exports are also coming up again. Just as Magnificent 7 in the U.S. raised all indices, we are likely to raise the index if semiconductors go up. We will have no choice but to look at stock prices and industrial trends such as Nvidia and AMD, which are barometer AI-related stocks.
I always have Cisco stock trends in my head. When Cisco went up, it was more frenetic than Nvidia today. The logic is that people who are optimistic about Nvidia stock are naturally different from then. But I think there's going to be a total amount that humans can consume, and ultimately it's going to be a peak when AI is installed on their phones.
These days, interest rate policies in each country are changing one after another. One country is lowering interest rates and another country is raising interest rates. But for us, the first thing we're interested in is the U.S., and then Korea, Japan, and China's interest rate policy. The question is whether to catch the inflation or the growth. U.S. market participants say that if growth is in a state of stagnation and interest rates are still high, it could lead to a recession, so we should lower interest rates quickly.
The opposing forces' argument is, after all, infre. You can't help but worry about the egg inflation that's coming up from agricultural and fishery products. And you can understand it from the looks of cocoa and sugar prices these days. And the shovels of the Arthur Burns in the 1970s, the FEDs, in the mind, will have no choice but to be cautious about cutting interest rates. But the bottom 50% of the median income is suffering from high interest rates, so their pain can't be ignored. Meanwhile, capitalists who are convinced that interest rates will fall anyway are increasing their investment in assets. Eventually, they will become rich and poor.
From the perspective of futures investors who invest in Korean stock indices, we have no choice but to see the fluctuations of semiconductor stocks that control the index, but paradoxically, we can do it easily as long as we only have to look at semiconductor stocks. If the U.S. is M7, we are semiconductor stocks. The index has no choice but to see the growth of Nvidia. If interest rate cuts do not continue, Nvidia stocks will reach their marginal utility, so the conclusion will be whether or not there will be a rate cut. However, looking at recent remarks by Fed members, it is also worrisome that Higher for Longer (H4L) will be prolonged.
The article somehow ended up not knowing the conclusion. I think I have no choice but to judge by rolling my head around the news. I expect that the program by Major will shake the index even more. I'm happy that someone I know sent me a lot of books yesterday, but on the other hand, I feel like I've received an assignment. Still, I have no choice but to read books because reading is the only way to realize my ignorance. Let's read books, books, books.